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MIDA (Mida Assets) — Deep Research (the buy-side of the pair trade)

Second-wave deep dive. Live spot ฿0.44 (2026-06-23). Sourced; unverifiable items flagged.

Owner thesis on file

Buy MIDA (pair against selling ML). MIDA owns ~47% of ML and is the controlling parent.

Ownership

Controlled by the Eiewsiwikul family, who also control ML. MIDA holds 46.98% of ML (500.2m shares) — a stake worth ~฿745m at ML ฿1.49, i.e. ~68% of MIDA's own ฿1,102m market cap. That cross-stake is the core of the MIDA value/optionality case.

Financials — deteriorating and cash-stressed

  • Losses are worsening: FY2023 +฿291.9m → FY2024 −฿212.3m → FY2025 −฿422.3m (Q3/2025 alone −฿306.8m).
  • Segments: appliance/used-vehicle hire-purchase, hotels, golf, billboards, real-estate development, distressed-asset management, security services.
  • Documented liquidity stress: the group held bondholder meetings to extend maturities, defer principal, and raise coupons (Hoonsmart/Infoquest); ML's MDL251A bond was extended with the rate lifted to 7%. MIDA plausibly needs cash — this is the supported leg of the pair thesis.

Valuation

  • P/B 0.37x — deep discount to book; mkt cap ฿1,102m on 1,252m shares.
  • The bull case: 0.37x book plus a 47% ML stake that has just tripled, plus a controlling family motivated to monetize. The bear case: worsening losses and refinancing risk could erode book before any monetization.

The asymmetry (why the pair tilt makes sense)

  • MIDA 0.37x P/B with optionality on an inflated ML stake = genuinely cheap.
  • ML 0.79x P/B with negligible earnings after a +372% parabola = speculatively overextended.
  • Rotating from the extended subsidiary into the cheap, optionality-rich parent is directionally sound. The risk is timing: MIDA's losses are accelerating, so this is a value/special-situation bet on monetization, not a clean compounder.

Insider / transactions

No specific Form-59 director filings retrieved. The structural fact (family controls both; group refinancing bonds) is the signal.

Sober verdict

MIDA is the better risk/reward of the pair on valuation and optionality, but it carries real balance-sheet stress (FY2025 −฿422m, bond extensions). Size it as a special-situation/value position, not a core hold, and watch for any actual ML-stake monetization or further bond restructuring.

Sources

SET factsheets (MIDA/ML); Settrade ML major shareholders; gapfocus MIDA; Hoonsmart / Infoquest bond-extension coverage.