ML (Mida Leasing) — Deep Research (ownership, financials, the "pump-to-sell" thesis)¶

Second-wave deep dive. Live spot ฿1.49 (2026-06-23). Sourced; unverifiable items flagged, not invented.

Owner thesis on file¶

"ML is being pumped to raise its value so MIDA (the 47% owner) can sell its stake to fund itself; once MIDA sells down, ML jumps." Plan: sell ML soon, buy MIDA.

Ownership — confirmed¶

Mida Asset PCL holds 46.98% of ML = 500,214,000 shares (record date 24 Jun 2025, Settrade). Controlling Eiewsiwikul family holds more directly (Kamal 7.17%, Jitwadee 3.68%, Chawalluksa 1.30%) — the same family controls both MIDA and ML. The 500.2m block was intact at the mid-2025 record date; no disposal filing found (SET/SEC shareholder pages are JS-rendered, so a very recent trim cannot be fully ruled out).

Financials — turnaround is real but tiny, off a loss base¶

Net result: FY2023 −฿83.5m → FY2024 −฿31.8m (narrowing) → FY2025 quarters mixed (Q1 +3.3, Q2 −13.9, Q3 −16.6) → Q1/2026 +฿6.2m.
A genuine operational improvement, but absolute numbers are single-digit millions.
The +372%/12m run (52-wk ฿0.32→฿1.54) is NOT justified by ~฿6m/quarter earnings — it's a speculative re-rating off a depressed, post-loss base.
NPL ratio / loan-book growth / ROE: not obtainable from rendered sources.

Valuation — extended on a weak-quality book¶

ML P/B 0.79x, mkt cap ฿1,587m, P/E n/a (barely profitable).
Peers (2026F): MTC 2.0x, TIDLOR 1.9x, SAWAD 1.3x, THANI 0.7x (closest). ML's 0.79x sits near THANI's — but THANI is consistently profitable (P/E ~9.6x) while ML has no meaningful earnings. ML's P/B is rich for its profitability and asset quality; the move is price-driven.

Thesis test¶

Motive ("MIDA needs cash"): SUPPORTED. MIDA losses are worsening and the group is refinancing distressed bonds (see MIDA page) — monetizing an inflated 47% ML block (~฿745m at ฿1.49) is a logical funding source.
Action ("MIDA is selling ML"): UNSUPPORTED. No insider-sale filing, analyst note, or management statement found; block fully held at Jun-2025 record date.
Mechanism ("once MIDA sells, ML jumps"): CONTRADICTED by logic. A large parent block hitting a thin float is a price overhang/headwind, not an upward catalyst.

Float / liquidity¶

Free float 42.59% (SET factsheet, 20 Mar 2026) — ~57% locked with MIDA + family. Daily volume ~9m shares (~฿13.5m). Thin-float, low-cap name after a parabolic +370% move trading ~3x its 200DMA — highly vulnerable to a sharp reversal, especially if the parent block is ever distributed.

Sober verdict¶

Selling ML is directionally sound: 0.79x P/B with negligible earnings, parabolic, thin float, overhang risk. But the specific catalyst your thesis names — a confirmed sell-down sparking an ML jump — is not evidenced and is logically backwards. Treat ML as a profit-taking candidate, not a catalyst-up story.

Sources¶

SET factsheets (ML/MIDA); Settrade ML major shareholders; gapfocus ML/MIDA; Thanachart finance-sector valuation PDF; Hoonsmart / Infoquest bond-extension news.