THG (Thonburi Healthcare Group) — Deep Research¶

New ticker, second-wave deep dive. Live spot ฿7.30 (2026-06-23). Sourced; unverifiable items flagged, not invented.

Owner thesis on file¶

"THG is the best time to buy, hold 2–5 years, should recover back above ฿30." Premise: a credible hospital group bought it, governance is being cleaned up, so re-rating is "not far-fetched."

RAM takeover mechanics¶

Ramkhamhaeng Hospital (RAM) raised its stake 24.59% → 49.99% via a private placement of 430,500,000 new shares at ฿8.65 = ฿3.72bn gross (announced 31 Mar 2025; SET/SEC filing THG 21/2025). RAM also subscribed to a rights offering at ฿5.00; total commitment >฿5bn, combined raise cited at ฿6,279m. Crossing 25% triggered a mandatory tender offer, but RAM pursued a "whitewash" waiver, explicitly stating it did not want to take over THG. Deal repaid debt (THG combined loans/debentures ~฿9.6bn) and cut annual interest >฿300m. - Board changes verified: new independent directors Sam Tanskul (eff. 20 Feb 2025), Paradorn Leosakul (eff. 31 Mar 2025); Dr. Linda Kraivit resigned (31 Jan 2025). - Unverifiable: the specific "฿5.9bn repaid" figure (sources show ~฿9.6bn total debt + ฿6.28bn raise, not a ฿5.9bn line); named RAM board appointees/chairman.

Boon Vanasin scandal¶

Founder Dr. Boon (86) allegedly ran fraudulent high-return schemes backed by fake hospital projects (Laos/Vietnam); checks bounced 2023. The Attorney-General charged Boon + 12 others; estimated damages ฿16.1bn. He fled Thailand late Sept 2024; arrest warrants issued 22 Nov 2024; wife and daughter detained since Nov 2024. Residual family stake ~8.8%, expected to fall to ~4.2% post-capital-increase. No clawback confirmed.

Financials — turnaround confirmed but razor-thin¶

FY2025: revenue ฿9.10bn (−4.0%), net income +฿96.2m vs ~−฿1.76bn in FY2024 — a ~฿1.86bn swing; EPS +฿0.054 vs −฿2.08.
Q3-2025: revenue ฿2.32bn (−8.3%), net income ฿5.12m, margin 0.2%.
Marginally profitable now, driven by lower interest expense (the recap), not revenue growth.
EBITDA / exact post-recap net debt: unverifiable at line-item precision here.

Valuation & the ฿30 reality check¶

Stock ~฿7.30; 52-wk range ฿8.40–฿38.50 (the ฿38.50 high is the relevant prior peak).
Trailing P/E meaningless (earnings only just turned positive).
Peers: BDMS P/E ~18.5x / EV-EBITDA ~11.3x / P/B ~2.78; BCH ~16.6x; CHG ~16x FY26E.
฿30 ≈ 4x today and near the old peak. At a peer ~16–18x P/E, ฿30 implies ~฿3.3–3.7bn net profit (฿30 × ~1.79bn shares ÷ ~16x). FY2025 net profit was ฿96m — roughly 35x below that. ฿30 is an aggressive top-of-range target, not a base case.

Insider / major-shareholder moves¶

Dominant event: RAM accumulation 24.59% → 49.99% (Apr 2025). Vanasin family diluted 8.8% → ~4.2%. Shares outstanding grew ~111% via the raises. Line-by-line Form-59 transactions: unverifiable from rendered sources.

Sober path to ฿30¶

Requires three stacked catalysts: (a) RAM integration delivering BDMS/BCH-like margins (THG now ~0.2–1.1% net vs peers' double digits); (b) ~30–40x net-profit growth to ฿3bn+; (c) full legal clearance of the Boon overhang. Realistic horizon for any of this is 3–5+ years. A defensible bull case is recovery toward the low-to-mid teens on demonstrated profitability and proven RAM synergy; ฿30 needs near-flawless execution plus a buoyant Thai hospital cycle. Your thesis is directionally credible (good operator, governance cleanup, debt fixed) — but ฿30 is the optimistic end, not the expected value.

Unverifiable / to confirm from filings¶

Exact ฿5.9bn repayment; line-item EBITDA / post-recap net debt; named RAM board appointees; Form 59-2 individual transactions. Confirm via THG FY2025 statements + Form 59-2 on market.sec.or.th.

Sources¶

Bangkok Post (THG new shares; "Unwinding Dr Boon"); SEC market.sec.or.th filing; THG 21/2025 (listedcompany); Nation Thailand (charges); stockanalysis.com THG; Simply Wall St THG; Kaohoon (hospital sector 2026).