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TRADER REPORT — MIDA

1. The 10-year story in three sentences

MIDA has been a textbook Thai mid-cap property destroyer: from ~฿0.95 in mid-2016 down to ฿0.41 today, a -57% total return over a decade while the SET went sideways — that's pure capital incineration. The 10-year high in this window is around ฿0.95 (2016) and the low is roughly ฿0.05 (intraday/print) showing an -82% peak-to-trough drawdown — anyone who tried to "average down" got vaporised. The last 3 months show the first credible sign of life since the COVID collapse: a low-base squeeze from ฿0.24 to ฿0.42 on visibly expanding volume, classic dead-cat-or-real-bottom territory.

2. Where we are now (price vs key levels)

  • Last: ฿0.41 (22 Jun 2026), up from a ฿0.22–฿0.25 base that held through April–mid-May.
  • Short-term trend: Sharp impulsive rally. Closed at the session high ฿0.41 on a ฿0.34 open — that's a 21% range day on ~17m shares, the second-largest volume print in the 60-day window.
  • Resistance overhead: ฿0.42 (today's high) → ฿0.45 → ฿0.50 (round number / likely 2024–25 supply zone — data not provided beyond 60 days, but psychological).
  • Support: ฿0.34–฿0.35 (breakout pivot, prior 4-week range top), then ฿0.30 (June base), then ฿0.27–฿0.28 (multi-month accumulation shelf). Lose ฿0.27 and the whole structure fails.
  • Tape character: Multiple zero-volume sessions (1, 4, 26 May, 1, 3 Jun) — this stock literally doesn't trade some days. Then explodes on 27m / 21m / 17m share days. That's a stock being walked up by a coordinated buyer, not organic demand.

3. Liquidity & positioning

  • ADV (60-day eyeball): Highly bimodal. Median day is sub-1m shares (฿250k–฿300k turnover at ฿0.30). Big days punch to 8–27m. Average daily turnover well under ฿30M — this is an illiquid micro-cap. Position-sizing rule: if you can't exit in one day without moving the print >5%, you're too big.
  • Foreign holding / free float / dividend yield: Data not provided (SET HTML shells returned no parseable data; shareholder page 404'd).
  • News flow: Zero meaningful English-language news in the package — Yahoo 0 items, Google company 0 items, Reddit blocked. This is an orphan stock. No broker coverage signal, no retail chat, no foreign interest.
  • Positioning read: Not crowded — it's neglected. The recent volume surge with no news is the tell: someone local knows something, or it's a pump. Either way, the float is so thin a single mid-sized account can move it.

4. The setup (or absence of one)

There IS a setup here, and it's a specific one: low-base reversal off multi-year capitulation lows, with the stock now breaking out of a 3-month ฿0.27–฿0.31 box on rising volume.

What I like: - The 13 May flush to ฿0.22 was rejected hard (closed ฿0.24, then ฿0.28 next day on 3.3m). - The breakout sequence is real: ฿0.31 → ฿0.34 → ฿0.38 high → consolidation → ฿0.42 on heavy tape. Higher highs, higher lows. - The 4 June ฿0.30→฿0.38 day on 27m shares is the "footprint" — institutional or insider-sized accumulation in a name with no news.

What I don't like: - It's a property micro-cap in a wrecked sector (Thai property has been a meat grinder since 2023). - Zero news flow = anyone bidding this knows something I don't. That cuts both ways. - Stocks that print zero volume days are not stocks, they're lottery tickets. - 10-year chart is straight-line down. The trend is your friend until the bend — and one month of green candles is not yet a bend.

5. 2-year price outlook

  • Bull case: ฿0.70–฿0.85 by mid-2027 if the property cycle troughs, MIDA's gold-leasing arm benefits from a sustained gold bid, and the current accumulation pattern resolves into a multi-quarter mark-up. That's roughly the ฿0.80 level from 2018–19 — a logical first major retracement target. ~2x from spot.
  • Base case: ฿0.30–฿0.40 by mid-2027. Stock holds the ฿0.27 shelf, chops in a ฿0.27–฿0.45 range as the property sector grinds. You make nothing except dividends (yield data not provided).
  • Bear case: ฿0.15–฿0.20 by mid-2027 if the current pop is a distribution rally, property NPLs blow out, and the stock loses ฿0.27. Once micro-cap property names break support, they go to the prior low fast — and the prior low in this dataset is near ฿0.05. I'd expect ฿0.15 to hold first try.

Skew is asymmetric but treacherous: 2x upside vs 50%+ downside, but the bear path is more probable given the 10-year tape.

6. Trade idea

Small speculative long, only for traders who can stomach micro-cap illiquidity.

  • Entry: Don't chase ฿0.41. Bid ฿0.35–฿0.37 on a pullback to the breakout zone. If it never comes back, you don't play.
  • Stop: Close below ฿0.27 on daily close (hard stop). That's a ~25% stop from ฿0.36 entry — appropriate for the volatility.
  • Target 1: ฿0.50 (round number, take 1/3 off).
  • Target 2: ฿0.65–฿0.70 (1-year bull target, take another 1/3).
  • Runner: ฿0.85 with trailing stop.
  • Size: Maximum 0.5–1% of book. Size kills in names that print zero on random Thursdays. If you can't get filled in one clip without moving the tape, you're too big.
  • Time horizon: 6–18 months.
  • Alternative — pass: If you don't already trade Thai micro-caps and don't have a broker who can work orders patiently, don't touch this. There are 500 better-liquidity names on the SET.

7. What would change my mind

  • More bullish: Daily close above ฿0.45 on >5m shares with follow-through next session → add. A SET filing explaining the volume surge (insider buy, asset sale, gold-segment news) → add aggressively. Sector-wide bid in Thai property names → tailwind.
  • More bearish / exit: Daily close below ฿0.27 → out, no questions. A single 20m+ share down day with red candle (distribution) → out. Any going-concern / impairment / capital-raise filing → out. If volume dies back to <500k ADV and the stock fades to ฿0.30 → no trade, this was a pump.
  • Need to see: Free float %, foreign holding %, debt position, dividend history — none provided. Without those, this stays a chart trade, not a conviction position.

Bottom line: interesting bottom-fishing setup on a left-for-dead micro-cap, but trade it like the orphan it is — small size, hard stop, take profits into strength. Don't fall in love with a ฿0.40 stock.